Way to go out on a fucking limb Pat

Pat Robertson: If I heard the Lord right about 2006, the coasts of America will be lashed by storms. There well may be something as bad as a tsunami in the Pacific Northwest.

Press Release 05-162
Number of Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes Has Doubled Over the Past 35 Years

September 15, 2005
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The change occurred as global sea-surface temperatures have increased over the same period.

Atmospheric scientist Peter Webster of Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, along with scientists Greg Holland of NCAR and Judith Curry and Hai-Ru Chang of Georgia Tech, studied the number, duration and intensity of hurricanes worldwide from 1970 to 2004.

Results of the research will appear in the Sept. 16 issue of the journal Science.

"Basic physical reasoning and climate model simulations and projections motivated this study," said Jay Fein, director of the National Science Foundaton's (NSF) climate and large-scale dynamics program, which funded the research. "The results will stimulate further research into the complex natural and human-caused processes influencing tropical hurricane trends and characteristics," he said.

"What we found was rather astonishing," said Georgia Tech's Webster. "In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year globally. Since 1990, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled, averaging 18 per year globally."

[more]

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006

We continue to foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006. Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages.

(as of 4 April 2006)

[snip]

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Or

2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Official Outlook (2), January 8th 2006

[snip]

Probability of a Tropical Cyclone making landfall in U.S: 96%
Probability of a Named Storm making landfall in U.S: 95%
Probability of a Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 85%
Probability of a Major Hurricane making landfall in U.S 75%
Probability of a Category 4-5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 55%
Probability of a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall in U.S: 30%

[more]

Me? I'm not betting against the house...